By SteadyState Commerce. Published 2026-08-20.
Container rates out of China just did something unusual for August: they went up, not down. Shanghai to Los Angeles hit $6,244 per 40-foot box on Drewry's World Container Index for the week of August 13, up 6% from the prior week (Source: Drewry World Container Index, https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-expertise/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry). Shanghai to New York climbed even further, to $8,706 per FEU, up 10% (Source: ChemAnalyst, https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/transpacific-freight-hits-a-perfect-storm-of-tariffs-tides-43922). If you've been telling your finance team freight is "coming down," update that call before you lock your Q4 landed cost numbers.
This isn't one bad week. It's three separate things landing on the same trade lane at the same time.
Carriers know exactly what they've got. They've filed a 17th general rate increase for September 1 on the Asia-USA lane this year, something one analyst called unheard of in a normal year (Source: ChemAnalyst, https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/transpacific-freight-hits-a-perfect-storm-of-tariffs-tides-43922). Most years you'd see four to six GRIs total, not seventeen.
Here's the part that trips sellers up. The published GRI number and what a forwarder actually books you at aren't the same figure right now. Earlier in August, carriers posted rates around $7,200 to $7,300 per container, but forwarders were quietly blending that down to $5,300 to $5,400, with some West Coast bookings as low as $4,900 (Source: FreightRight, https://www.freightright.com/news/august-ocean-rate-increase-begins-to-unravel-as-importers-hold-back-tfx-update-wk-august-3-2026). By mid-August the market had firmed back toward the higher end again. That spread between rate card and street price is wide enough right now that it's worth getting two or three quotes before you book, not just taking your regular forwarder's first offer.
We're telling clients three things this week. First, if you haven't locked freight for October and November replenishment, do it now instead of waiting for a dip. Some analysts think part of the recent spike could partially unwind, but nobody serious is calling for rates back to spring levels before peak season hits. Second, build a wider landed cost buffer into your Q4 pricing and ad spend math. Between the 12.5% forced labor tariff layer and freight running well above June levels, a unit that cleared $4 in freight and duty this spring could be closer to $6 or $7 landed now, depending on category and country of origin. Third, if any SKUs are borderline on velocity, this is the moment to trim the tail. Paying premium freight and elevated long-term storage fees on slow movers heading into Q4 is how margin disappears quietly, unit by unit, without anyone noticing until the P&L closes.
One more thing worth checking: East Coast routings are getting squeezed harder by the canal restrictions than West Coast is, so if you normally split volume to manage inland transit time, confirm current transit reliability with your forwarder before you commit that split. The East Coast premium over West Coast has widened this month and may not close before peak.
The takeaway: freight is moving against sellers right now, not for them, and the drivers behind it (tariffs, canal drafts, weather) aren't the kind that resolve in a week. If you've still got Q4 inventory sitting at origin, get quotes locked and containers booked this week rather than waiting on a rate dip that may not arrive before your ship window closes. We help sellers stress-test landed cost scenarios like this against their FBA inbound calendar if a second set of eyes on the numbers would help.