Panama Canal Draft Cuts Are Driving New Ocean Surcharges

By SteadyState Commerce. Published 2026-08-14.

If you've got anything moving through the Panama Canal to the East Coast or Gulf right now, you're paying more than you were three weeks ago, and it's about to go up again. This isn't a base rate hike carriers are trying to push through. It's water levels.

What's actually happening

The Panama Canal Authority has been cutting the maximum authorized draft at the Neopanamax Locks in stages: 49.5 feet in early July, down to 49 feet on July 24, and scheduled to drop again to 48.5 feet on August 15 (Source: FreightRight, https://www.freightright.com/news/august-ocean-rate-increase-begins-to-unravel-as-importers-hold-back-tfx-update-wk-august-3-2026). The driver is an anticipated El Niño pattern that could mean another dry season squeeze on the canal's freshwater reservoirs, the same issue that caused transit slot rationing back in 2023 and 2024. Nobody wants a repeat of that, so the Authority is getting ahead of it now.

Carriers are responding the way they always do when transit gets constrained: surcharges. Hapag-Lloyd announced $130 per TEU on all equipment for Far East to North America sailings that transit the canal, effective August 15 (Source: Hapag-Lloyd, https://www.hapag-lloyd.com/en/services-information/news/2026/07/shipping-from-far-east-to-north-america--a-panama-canal-surcharg.html). MSC set its own charge at $100 per TEU on Southeast Asia, China, Korea, and Japan cargo moving to the US East and Gulf Coasts, effective for cargo gated in from August 19 (Source: Supply Chain Dive, https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/msc-cma-cgm-introduce-fresh-panama-canal-surcharges/825941/). CMA CGM moved first, lifting its Panama Canal Adjustment Factor to $320 per TEU on July 25, and it's already told customers that number is jumping to $500 per TEU on September 10 (Source: FreightRight, https://www.freightright.com/news/august-ocean-rate-increase-begins-to-unravel-as-importers-hold-back-tfx-update-wk-august-3-2026).

Worth noting: carriers aren't working off a shared formula here. One line's $130 surcharge and another's $320 aren't the same fee applied consistently, they're separate pricing decisions on the same underlying constraint. That means your freight forwarder can genuinely shop this, and the spread between quotes on an East Coast booking this month is going to be wider than usual.

What this means for your inbound plan

For anyone landing on the US East Coast or Gulf via all-water service from Asia, your per-container cost just moved, and it's going to keep moving through September at least. If you've got standing freight contracts, check whether the Panama Canal surcharge is already baked in or gets added as an accessorial, because that's the difference between a rate that held and one that quietly didn't.

We're telling clients booking East Coast direct calls right now to get quotes locked before September 10, since that CMA CGM jump is already on the calendar and the other two carriers have shown they'll move again if draft restrictions tighten further. If you've got flexibility, this is also a moment to price out West Coast discharge plus rail or a transload move to compare against staying all-water. West Coast base rates have actually been softening (China to USWC spot has been sliding back toward the mid-$5,000s per FEU after an early-August spike), so the math might favor a routing change for anything not time-critical.

If you're prepping Q4 inventory, build the surcharge into your landed cost now rather than after the invoice shows up. A $130 to $500 per TEU swing doesn't sound like much until you're running twelve containers a month into a fulfillment network that's already squeezed on Q4 storage rates.

What to do this week

The takeaway here isn't complicated: this is a cost move driven by water levels, not demand, and it's going to sit on East Coast and Gulf routings through at least September. Get your quotes locked ahead of the known step-ups, confirm what's already included in your rate, and don't let a $300+ per container swing land on you as a surprise on the next invoice. We help sellers model exactly this kind of routing and cost tradeoff as part of freight planning at SteadyState Commerce, if it's useful to run your numbers against someone who's watching this daily.