By SteadyState Commerce. Published 2026-08-22.
Container rates went up for the third week running as of August 20, and that's not the number that should worry you most. Drewry's World Container Index climbed 4% to $4,526 per 40ft box, with Shanghai to New York up 9% to $9,507 and Shanghai to Los Angeles up 9% to $6,802 (Source: Drewry World Container Index, https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-expertise/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry). The number that should worry you is what's stacking up behind it: a fresh round of GRIs, a new emergency fuel surcharge, and 14 blank sailings between August 24 and September 13, eight of them bunched into a single week right before Labor Day.
Normally by mid-August the peak season rush has already pulled forward and rates start easing into fall. Not this year. Supply Chain Dive reported Asia-to-East Coast spot rates hit a 2026 high of $9,144 per FEU on August 11, and West Coast rates jumped 11% week over week to $6,826. Freightos called the sustained demand a surprise to most observers (Source: Supply Chain Dive, https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/asia-to-us-east-coast-ocean-rates-rise-to-new-high/827604/). We think the tariff calendar explains most of it. Section 122's 10% global postal surcharge expired July 24 and got replaced almost immediately by a Section 301 tariff that now touches 99% of US imports. Sellers who were sitting on orders moved fast once that switch flipped, and August port volume held near 2.22 million TEU instead of the seasonal step-down forecasters expected.
Carriers layered mid-August GRIs on top of that demand, and the Panama Canal Authority is still managing vessel draft and weight restrictions that push some cargo onto lighter loads or alternate routings. On top of the base rate, ONE rolled out an Emergency Fuel Surcharge effective August 15: $75 per TEU on dry containers and $100 on reefers for long-haul headhaul trades, tied to elevated bunker costs from the Middle East security situation (Source: Container News, https://container-news.com/one-updates-emergency-fuel-surcharge-across-global-trade-lanes-2/). Then there are the blank sailings. Fourteen are scheduled between August 24 and September 13, with eight of them concentrated in the week of August 31 (Source: GLC Transpacific Ocean Freight Update, https://glc-inc.com/2026/08/transpacific-ocean-freight-august-2026/). Blank sailings pull capacity out right when everyone's trying to get Q4 inventory moving. That combination, rising rates plus fewer sailings plus a fuel surcharge layered on top, is what we'd call a genuine cost squeeze, not noise.
If you've got PO cutoffs for Q4 replenishment still open, we'd move them up rather than wait for rates to cool. They might, eventually, but not before the blank sailing window closes in mid-September, and by then you're fighting for space during the actual peak. A few things worth doing this week:
The takeaway: this isn't a rate blip that reverses itself before Q4, it's tariff-driven demand meeting reduced capacity at the worst possible time of year. Lock in space and budget the surcharges now, because waiting for rates to soften risks missing the sailing windows that actually get your inventory onto shelves before Black Friday. We help sellers time inbound freight against exactly this kind of squeeze if you want a second set of eyes on your Q4 booking calendar.